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Shifting market shows confidence and caution

There was drama on the mining front, and plenty of buying and easing back as the A2X headed towards its eighth year

Picture: 123RF/POP NUKOONRAT
Picture: 123RF/POP NUKOONRAT

The past fortnight’s Sens announcements revealed more than routine housekeeping: fund managers are trimming, directors are buying, and contrarians are quietly circling out-of-favour stocks. From Coronation Fund Managers easing back at Bytes Technology Group to Ninety One doubling down on Cashbuild, the market’s shifting bets say plenty about where confidence is building, and where caution still resides.

One of the more notable adjustments came at Bytes, where Coronation trimmed its stake ever so slightly, slipping from 22.1% to 21.8%. It’s hardly a rush for the exits, but Bytes is still recovering from a near-30% price drop in July after announcing lower-than-expected operating profit in the first half of its financial year.

In contrast, Cashbuild saw Ninety One notch up its holding to a clean 10%. The building supplies retailer has had a tough few years as consumer spending faltered and construction activity lagged. That a fund manager is prepared to double down here is intriguing: it could be a contrarian bet that the cycle has bottomed, or simply a valuation call that the stock now looks too cheap to ignore. Either way, it stands out in a sector that few investors have been rushing to embrace.

The week also belonged to directors putting their money where their mouths are. The Public Investment Corp reduced its exposure to food producer and distributor Libstar, dropping below the 10% threshold. That may not move the share price in the short term, but it does underline the tricky path food producers are navigating: squeezed margins, fickle consumers and rising input costs.

By contrast, Momentum nonexecutive director and former CEO Hillie Meyer was buying, scooping up more than R2.5m worth of shares on-market. For a life insurer navigating economic headwinds, insider conviction is always worth noting.

RMB Holdings (RMH) attracted a bold buyer: Breede Coalitions — an entity associated with shareholder activist Albie Cilliers. Breede pushed its stake to 15% in the property investment company. This chunkier position might hint at activist intent or at least a strong view on RMH, even though there appears to be some frustration in unlocking value from RMH’s sizeable investment in the Atterbury Property group.

Pan African Resources saw two major shareholders shift gears in opposite directions

The miners also produced their share of drama. Pan African Resources saw two major shareholders shift gears in opposite directions: Coronation trimmed back to just under 3%, while VanEck, a global investment management firm headquartered in New York, slashed its holding from 6% to 2.3%. For a gold producer, this divergence says local managers are easing back, while global funds appear less patient with the commodity cycle.

Meanwhile, Sibanye-Stillwater chair Vincent Maphai spent R174,198 on 4,589 shares, while CFO Charl Keyter dug deeper, laying out R1.91m for 50,000 shares. Given the group’s ongoing battles with debt and labour strife, these purchases are best read as a vote of confidence from insiders who know how hard the road ahead will be.

The A2X turns eight

On October 6, A2X will mark eight years since it first opened, and the alternative exchange has plenty to celebrate. What began as a disrupter promising lower trading costs has steadily matured into a meaningful slice of South Africa’s capital market.

The past week shows Prosus once again towering over the board with R1.84bn worth of shares changing hands, a hefty 31.8% of its overall market share on A2X.

Investec traded R207m, accounting for 27.2% of its market share. What makes this striking is not just the value but the volume, with more than 1.58-million shares edging out even Prosus on that front.

Glencore also featured prominently, with R302m worth of shares trading at a 13.8% slice.

Nepi Rockcastle saw R70m worth of trades at 12.7% of its market share. And finally, AngloGold Ashanti notched up R484m in trades, a 10.6% share.

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